Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your NFL teams. I am not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. A missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand. Throughout the internet or in many preseason publications, interesting fact-based cold data is available for you to learn from. For example, New Orleans is harrowing favorite at 11-22 ATS, yet is quite profitable 29-18 ATS as an underdog. Take a look at a team like Jacksonville who wears the underdog hat comfortably at 16-7-1 ATS. 

This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money before the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers also, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. Coach Bill Belichick has always placed a strong emphasis on winning period. The Patriots are 21-13 ATS as favorites and 12-4 against the spread as home faves versus incoming teams with losing records. New England is 5-1 ATS the first week of preseason, as Belichick wants the hard work of training camp to pay off for the players as an immediate benefit.

Philadelphia’s Andy Reid is big on preparation when it counts and uses a different approach. The Eagles are 14-26 SU under Reid in the during exhibition encounters with 19-21 ATS record. What is noteworthy about following Philly is they have lost and failed to cover last five opening preseason games. Reid has used this time wisely to evaluate his large squad and is not bothered by the outcome. He in turn uses the loss as motivational tool and is 5-0 SU and ATS in week 2.

Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we have eight coaches that are taking over new teams and two others that were mid-season replacements running their first camps. Not one is a retread, meaning they all have to earn the players respect and vise-versa. After going through grueling training camps, each coach will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit. However, with so many coaches with new teams it would appear very difficult to make a profit because of the volume of games.
 
The potential path of least resistance would be to Play On first time head coaches (When not matched against other teams with same circumstance), coaching teams off bad season or seasons, when facing veteran or playoff teams. These new head masters will want to make a strong impression and establish credibility. Their job is to show the team who is boss, the direction is correct and the right players will be on board to make it happen. As baseball manager Casey Stengel once said “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.”

Oakland’s Tom Cable and San Francisco’s Mike Singletary started to set the wheels in motion as replacements last season, however will want to place a stamp on what they expect. Jim Mora Jr. and Jim Caldwell were part of succession planning at respective franchises and this makes their situation a tougher call.

Week 2 - Be ready to pounce

This is one of the two weeks you can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits with proper preparation. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. I’ve already made mention of how Philadelphia fits into a week like this and Minnesota is another example for last season. The Vikings were awful in losing first game at home to Seattle, 34-17 as three-point favorites. After a week of Brad Childress cracking the whip, Minnesota was at Baltimore for next contest, which was off win over New England. The Vikes gave a much more focused performance and whipped the Ravens 23-15, catching a point.

Another example from 2008 was New Orleans, which fits the mold. The Saints started with a crisp 24-10 effort at Arizona, on the receiving end of a couple of points. They returned home maybe a little satisfied, maybe Sean Payton lightened the reins and with a total of 36 set, New Orleans lost a 31-27 shootout. With how long training camp is to the players, a coach can’t pound on them every day, thus all teams will have flat spots after solid efforts. Show me a coach that wants to go undefeated in August and I’ll show you a team with a losing record in early January.

This time around, be sure to watch for teams that may have put up less than admirable efforts in the first week, and grab those that you feel will be better motivated for week two outing.
 
Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal

Previously, the last week of the preseason was the time when teams played the starters at least two-thirds of the game, to give the coaches a real sense of where the team was and if they were on schedule. Because of the number of injuries that occur, Week 3 has become the important week to gauge each club’s progress. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note.

The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. The 2007 campaign ended in disappointment for Green Bay in the NFC title game against eventual Super Bowl champion the New York Giants. The Brett Favre circus was just leaving town last year and the coaching staff was desperate to establish Aaron Rodgers as quarterback, after losing first two preseason games. Mike McCarthy wanted excellence from his squad and they pulled off a 27-24 upset in Denver, who has traditionally been a very good preseason squad under now former coach Mike Shanahan.

How different situations can work to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know coaches are control freaks. Coaches want to build you up to tear you down and vise-versa. In the preseason, any coach loves to put the team thru strenuous practices after a weak effort. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blow-out losses. The players are sick of training camp and played poorly. The coach runs them ragged and the players want the head-man off their backs, thus they respond in a positive manner and win and cover the next game.

Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season

The last week of the preseason is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. Under Shanahan, Denver always was strong closer, having covered last nine this week, will it continue with new coach? Marvin Lewis is on 4-0 ATS run, with Houston 0-6 ATS and Washington one behind at 0-5 against the linemaker in Week 4.  It is wise to be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk to find a couple more winners. If you are having a mediocre or below average time in picking winners before the start of the season, save your money for what you care about most, the beginning of the start of the NFL regular season. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.

Final Thoughts

Take the time to review the box scores in the preseason. Do not do this for traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference and the next week’s opportunity to cash with productive results. Studying can lead to insights about any team’s depth or possible motivation based on outcome. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the 2nd half. This could well be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the 16-game season, the drop-off will be precipitous.
 
Don’t handicap the pre-season the same as the regular season. These are truly two completely different animals. Don’t over-analyze, keep it simple. If you are going to watch these games, focus on Week 3, when it matters more to a certain degree. Most importantly, have fun and enjoy the fact that you are that much closer to September 10th, the kickoff of the regular season.

Continued from Home Page

Betting the NFL is about uncovering edges

For sports bettors, there is no greater challenge than trying to beat the oddsmakers in wagering on professional football. This on going battle is reminiscent of golf, though you might have great days and sometimes outstanding years, you never really beat the game, it’s more of a survival. The sharpest minds are always on the prowl seeking ways to profit against the untamed beast, knowing full well what works today could be as meaningless as Week 1 stats at the end of the season.

This process is like being an archeologist, you keep digging, and often, no matter how pointless it seems, you’ll come across something when you least expect it, something that pays dividends immediately and down the road.

I ended up spending a great deal of time searching for different winning information and like the previously mentioned archeologist, came up empty more than once, despite what were believed to be solid fundamental principles, applying to making money betting the NFL.

The methodology was to pick a category and review the top and bottom aspects of each one. Ideally, hitting the bomb would be fantastic, however, realistically, moving the chains would work just fine, as long as it scored in the end.

One element that seemed to make sense was time of possession. If a team has the ball and scores enough points within the given time they have the ball, they place added pressure on the opposing team to match scores. Many analysts and play-by-play announcers are quick to point out T.O.P. is useless in a given game, when say turnovers or quick strikes are involved in their respective contest they are broadcasting. While this certainly happens, too often this is taken as factual material, with little substance behind it other than personal opinion for the telecast they are covering.

Our study went back thru the last four seasons and here is what we learned about T.O.P. both good and bad.

The most noticeable point is that every team was for the most part a running team. Stating the obvious, it is easiest to control the clock when running the pigskin because there is no stoppage of time. Of the 20 teams that finished in the Top 5 of T.O.P., only two had losing records (Oakland 2007 and Minnesota 2006), and that was predicated on poor quarterback play, which forced those teams to run the ball. Even the 2007 New England Patriots, who were 16-0 during the regular season, possessed the ball the second most time during that season. Most will remember the short passing game and prolific scoring offense controlled expertly by quarterback Tom Brady; however what was lost in all of New England success was an above average running game that totaled 1,849 yards, good for 13th overall.

What we see in the above chart is controlling the clock leads to wins and spread covers. Last season, Baltimore and the New York Giants were tremendous in working the clock and covered 75 percent of their contests. The uninformed naysayer will point to these teams had leads and just ran out the clock in the fourth quarter to create time difference. To this I say “ridiculous”. The Ravens and G-Men are two teams without question committed to running the ball all four quarters and just don’t build advantage late in game.

One aspect of detractors that never made sense to me was those who complained about rushing attempts that milked the clock to ice games. Just because a team has a lead in the fourth quarter and is running the ball does not automatically mean they win the game and cover the spread. They have to be skillful and more talented on that day to win the game and in all likelihood ran the ball throughout the course of the game, which helped lead to victory.

Running the ball means controlling the line of scrimmage. You hear coaches preach it all the time, “Move the chains”. This deflates a defense and if they are being manhandled, it’s tough to lineup up in stance and have your backside whipped time after time. Nearly as bad is the defensive back who becomes bored facing opponents running game and falls asleep on third and two, as his receiver runs five-yard comeback route for a first down to keep the time moving, when he foolishly played 10 yards off the receiver.

Overall, these teams were healthy 183-130-7 against the spread, for winning percentage of 58.4 percent. To put that number into perspective, this would mean dime players picked up $4,000 following these teams.

The complete opposite perspective is teams that have more than their fair share of three and outs, putting the defense in peril, being overworked. In this chart below, only two teams were .500 or better in the last four years. The 2005 Miami squad was 9-7, but had losing spread record at 7-9. The four season’s total results have these 20 teams playing bad football with 96-224 record, at 41.7 percentage. These teams faired a little better versus the oddsmakers at 141-174-5 ATS, however that mostly due to Buffalo and Tennessee in 2006, when both teams had a number of late rallies to win or nearly win contests for covers.

If an offense can’t stay on the field or the defense can’t get off it, these teams are bound to lose on a more continual basis and profits are waiting to be taken.

Profit with total points scored, really

Another profitable nugget found comes from the simplest means of playing football, scoring points. How is this for stating the obvious, if you outscore the opposing team, you win the game and most likely cover the spread. If you don’t score enough points, you lose and probably don’t cover the spread. Pretty revolutionary material, even for John Madden.

That’s how it works sometimes, we all try so hard to find unique systems, we overlook what is in plain sight and staring us in the face in every newspaper or website we visit. As you can see below, the profits are right there to be taken. Consider the worst year was 2006 at 45-34-1 ATS, with a very respectable 56.9 percentage. 2007 was a superior season at 50-29-1 ATS, 63.2 percent, with an exceptional collection of teams that was 66-14 overall. Last year’s grouping made a nice profit at 58.9 percent, but take away the Giants and they were below .500 for straight up record. Best guess is this is more of anomaly and normalcy will return this season. Collectively since 2005, these squads are186-126-9 ATS, for a sweet 59.4 percent “show me the money” record.

It’s not hard to determine, if you can’t score you can win, unless you have a Top 5 defense and chances are they will be worn out before the year’s end trying to keep foes out of the end zone with few scoring contributions. Here the team scoring the least amount of points were 135-177-8 ATS, covering just 43.2 percent of the time.

Defense builds bankrolls also.

If throwing the ball efficiently is this important in the pro game, there has to be a cause and effect for defending the pass of similar proportion. I carried out the theme in much the same fashion as other studies in this article and was somewhat surprised by the calculated results.

Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been two of the very best defensive teams over the last six or seven years and were in the Top 5 of fewest yards allowed per pass three times in the last four years. The combination of having debilitating pass rush along with defensive backs that can close on receivers and make big hits gives the Steelers and Ravens edge few teams can match.

Last season, these were the best two squads in football in allowing the fewest yards in this category and headed a group that was very profitable at 49-30-1, 62 percent.

This ended up being the high water mark in our research, which left me a trifle disappointed. The year 2007 was the biggest culprit for lack of betting success, with a very unimpressive 41-36-1 ATS mark. The four year period yielded a 178-136-6 ATS record, for a decent 56.6 percent.

Upon further exploration, I came across numbers that one can really sink their teeth into.

The worst teams against the yards per pass gave a much poorer showing and delivered the kind of profits we’re seeking.

What we learn here is valuable information that can be applied relatively early in the season and profited from all season long. Checking out the list of teams, all for the most part had a common denominator, they played mostly zone defense in the defensive backfield. Why is this important? With the exception of teams Tony Dungy coached that played Cover 2 nearly all the time, playing zone defense is designed to cover up weakness. If the cornerbacks lack man coverage skills, the zone defense can work, as long as team is able to generate a pass rush.

Where this breaks down is if a defense does not apply pressure to the quarterback, there is more than enough passing lanes to find an open receiver. The Indianapolis Colts never have had exceptional corners, with their best attributes being closing speed and tackling. The teams on this list seldom had enough talent in the secondary and offered a spotty pass rush.

This made them vulnerable to any competent quarterback with a degree of accuracy. These clubs for the most part were baneful and picked apart, conceding an unusual amount of big plays, which ultimately led to points.

Football shows how fickle fate can be with Baltimore ranked 28th in this category in 2007, blended in with three Top 5 performances. As you might recall, the Ravens secondary was ravaged with injuries that season and a few key members up front were either out or walking wounded. Baltimore was forced to play far more zone than accustomed to and was torched with 5-11 record, with just three covers of the spread.

Adding up the numbers, we arrive at mouth-watering 191-123-6 ATS mark, 60.1 percent, playing against these teams who futilely try and stop the forward pass. No way to know at this juncture, but the trend line is extremely positive for this stat, with the bottom five 39-121 straight and 52-105-3 against the oddsmakers for a scrumptious 66.8 percent cover rate playing against these teams the last two years.

The bottom line to doing this kind of research is for lack of a better term, will improve your bottom line. Let’s face it, the idea of sports betting should be to win, not just to have action. You can play rock-paper-scissors if you want betting action. Sports betting is about finding edges that turn losing weeks into winners and good weeks into memorable ones with superior information.

Look to profit from numbers like these and create some of your own. I know you are determined to win this season, because you paid for this book and are reading this article. Good Luck.

Wagering on College Football Talent

In order for the very best teams to play in the biggest bowls their conferences have tie-ins to; the first thing they have to do is win their conference championship. The BCS has its teams they select first from its conference champions and Conference USA, the MAC, the Mountain West and Sun Belt winners all have bowl games lined up for them to play for winning the league title.

Coaching is important, however recruiting in what makes the very best teams. Having the best talent year after year will keep most any school at or near the top of the conference standings. I devised a way several years ago that breaks down whom the most talented players are by position with a weighted system that creates a point value, within each conference. Like all-preseason rankings, this doesn’t assure who will finish where, since players we have never heard of will emerge (does Knowshon Moreno ring a bell) and alter the dynamics of a team. Nevertheless, this is trustworthy guide leading into the season that could open up a few eyes and either make or save the sports bettor money in September and later. Key point, this does not take into consideration how a schedule will affect the outcome, just the talent aspect.

ACC -Atlantic
1) Clemson -16.5
2) N.C. State -16
3) Boston College -14.5
4) Florida State -12.5
5) Maryland - 6.5
6) Wake Forest -6

ACC – Coastal
1) Virginia Tech -23
2) Georgia Tech -20
3) North Carolina – 13.5
4) Duke -7
5) Miami- 6.5
6) Duke -6

Analysis- What was absolutely shocking about doing this study was Florida State is picked to win the ACC Atlantic by most observers, yet ranks sixth in top level talent. That is not to say the Seminoles lack ability, rather, they don’t appear to have a number of difference-makers like Virginia Tech for example. Another aspect that caught me off-guard was how devoid of superior talent the Miami Hurricanes really are. Again, similar to their rival Florida State, the “U” could emerge as a better than expected TEAM overall, but they don’t start the season blessed with tremendous ability. Clemson is under the radar a bit, which might be to their liking, since their offensive and defensive lines will be among the best in the ACC. Nine of the 12 ACC teams have winning overall records as underdogs the last four years.

Big East
1) Pittsburgh -26.5
2) West Virginia -22.5
3) South Florida -20.5
4) Rutgers -19.5
5) Connecticut -17.5
6) Cincinnati -15
7) Louisville -13
8) Syracuse -10.5

Analysis- Coach Dave Wannstedt has 15 returning Pitt starters in what should be a highly competitive Big East race. Pittsburgh and Rutgers should have the best offensive lines and the Panthers will be rather stout up front on defense. West Virginia is officially in transition on offense with Pat White gone at quarterback and new passing offense will reflect changes in the coming years. South Florida and Rutgers should very competitive, with the Bulls a year smarter having learned what it means to be chased rather than a team on the rise. If USF’s defensive front plays to capabilities, watch out. Cincinnati will score points, however they have 10 new defensive starters. I know Greg Paulus would have been big time recruit if he had chosen football over playing basketball at Duke, but what does it say about how bad the Syracuse football program is when a player walks in to play the most important position on the field, having not played in four years? A ploy to sell tickets, we’ll find out.

Mountain West
1) BYU -25
2) TCU -24
3) Utah -21.5
4) Air Force -18.5
5) Colorado State -15.5
6) UNLV -14
7) Wyoming -10.5
8) New Mexico -6
9) San Diego State -3.5

Analysis – This should be another exciting season in the Mountain West, with three teams capable of winning title. BYU has the slight edge over TCU and Max Hall is poised for monster senior campaign. Utah will be in the mix after perfect season, but lost a lot of talent from last season. It’s a rare occurrence when a military school has a number of players back, but this Air Force club might have a couple of upsets they can pull off. The rest of the MWC is several rungs below, meaning they are unlikely to cover many road spreads and could cover home games, especially if top contenders have look-ahead game.

Big 12 North
1) Missouri -12
2) Kansas -10.5
3) Nebraska -8.5
4) Kansas State 4.5
5) Iowa State -2
6) Colorado -1.5

Big 12 South
1) Oklahoma -41.5
2) Texas -24.5
3) Oklahoma State 18.5
4) Texas Tech -13.5
5) Baylor -12
6) Texas A&M -0

Analysis – What jumps off the page about the Big 12 is the disparity in the two divisions. Missouri is rated talent-wise on par with Baylor, who would quality as “cash for clunkers” in the Big 12 South. Texas brings back 16 starters including quarterback Colt McCoy, nevertheless, Oklahoma will score points with QB Sam Bradford and could be a great defensive team, while the Longhorns lost numbers in the defensive line. Oklahoma State should have similar season to a year ago, with all its offense. The Big 12 North looks like winner by default and Texas A&M is the first team in four years I’ve had that doesn’t rate a player with any All-Big 12 potential. Oddmakers will have their hands full trying to find right numbers when North meets South.

WAC
1) Boise State -31.5
2) Nevada -28.5
3) Louisiana Tech-24
4) Fresno State -18.5
5) San Jose State -16.5
6) Hawaii -9.5
7) Idaho -7.5
8) New Mexico State -7.5
9) Utah State -6

Analysis- The numbers are a bit of fooler, since Boise State has easily more overall talent than any other team in the WAC, just not all-league material everywhere. That is actually good for the WAC and Nevada is the one team that could upset the Broncos, with QB Colin Kaepernick leading explosive offense behind a very good offensive line and arguably the best D-line in the conference. Louisiana Tech is going the right direct under coach Derek Dooley, having moved from seventh to third in talent outlook in three years. These Bulldogs have definite Play On potential in 2009. Maybe Fresno State should become independent, since coach Pat Hill seems to focus on those contests more anyway, for a program that looks to have stalled and is stellar Play Against conference club.

Conference USA East Division
1) East Carolina -26.5
2) Southern Miss -23.5
3) Marshall -18
4) Central Florida -9.5
5) Memphis -8.5
6) UAB -8

Conference USA West Division
1) Houston -17
2) Tulsa -13
3) UTEP -6.5
4) SMU -5
5) Tulane -4.5
6) Rice -3.5

Analysis- East Carolina and Southern Miss are the class of C-USA and should have intriguing battle. Coach Mark Snyder is in hot water at Marshall with 16-31 (16-25-2 ATS) record and has the talent to have respectable season that could save his job. All the better teams in the West Division have offensive talent and are very thin on defense to stop anybody. After 7-1 record in conference and bowl experience, Rice returns to being Rice with exceptional skill players graduated. Still a conference to watch totals on because of lack of defense.

Big Ten
1) Penn State -29
2) Iowa -18
3) Wisconsin -15
4) Illinois -14.5
5) Ohio State -14
6) Michigan State -13.5
7) Michigan -13
8) Northwestern -9
9) Minnesota -8
10) Indiana -4
11) Purdue -3.5

Analysis- I spent more time on this conference than any other. Not because I lived most of my life in Big Ten country, but because I could not believe Ohio State graded out so low. The Buckeyes won’t finish this far down in the standings, as talented players coach Jim Tressel recruited will step forward, possibly similar to the 2007 team that played LSU in the BCS title tilt. However, I’m not sure until the Buckeyes play, which those players will be. Iowa and Illinois both could be surprise teams if the Hawkeyes offense improves and the Fighting Illini come together beyond the defensive line. Wisconsin has players concentrated in certain areas and Michigan State is improving, still lacking qualities to really make a major move. Penn State, grading out this high made me think the Big Ten might be really weak this season, since the Nittany Lions suffered heavy losses, but have QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster in the fold. If instincts are correct, lots of dogs will cover.

Pac-10
1) USC -31
2) California -22
3) UCLA -17
4) Oregon State -16
5) Oregon -15
6) Arizona State -15
7) Arizona -11.5
8) Stanford -9
9) Washington -7
10) Washington State -1

Analysis – Listen closely, it’s the familiar beat of top level recruits beating the doors down to play at USC for coach Pete Carroll. While some talk that California might have closed the gap this season, the Trojans most difficult opponent the last several seasons has been complacency when you least expect it, which suggests the Bears don’t fit the mold. UCLA has definite Play On potential after losing 44-man starts last season and its quarterback play couldn’t have been worse. Watch the Bruins in 2009. This is league devoid of renowned quarterback play it appears. Most teams’ fortunes (and sports bettors) will rise and fall with how well their signal callers do in making plays.

SEC East
1) Florida -35
2) Georgia -16
3) Tennessee -11
4) Kentucky -8
5) South Carolina -3.5
6) Vanderbilt-2

SEC West
1) Alabama -22
2) LSU -16.5
3) Mississippi -13
4) Arkansas -7.5
5) Auburn -6
6) Mississippi State -2

Analysis – There is an 800-pound gorilla in the SEC and everyone is trying to figure how to knock it off. Only Florida seems capable of beating Florida, in what could be somewhat of a down year for the SEC, maybe unfairly compared to the Gators squad. Georgia and Tennessee look eons away from matching up. This might be the end of the line for Steve Spurrier in Columbia, not being able to work recruiting magic to bring in high-caliber players to compete, especially on offense. Ole Miss is mildly popular pick to win the SEC West, but both Alabama and LSU have more talented players, with the Rebels better at skill positions. It’s shocking to see how far Auburn has slipped this fast from ability perspective. The SEC has several one-sided crazy against the spread rivalries that make little sense and unless you play and win.

MAC-East
1) Buffalo -20.5
2) Temple -12
3) Akron -10
4) Ohio U -7.5
5) Bowling Green -7
6) Kent State -7
7) Miami-O -0.5

MAC –West
1) Central Michigan -25
2) Western Michigan -17
3) Ball State -15
4) Northern Illinois -12
5) Toledo -6.5
6) Eastern Michigan -4.5

Analysis- Buffalo caught more than their fair share of breaks in winning the MAC in 2008. Whether they will have anywhere close to the same success is debatable, yet no arguing head coach Turner Gill has done a fine job of adding players that can compete at this level. The rest of the MAC East teams are fairly close outside of Miami-O and a startling winner could come forward, just like Buffalo did. Central and Western Michigan are head and shoulders above the MAC West pack with good talent around superior quarterbacks Dan LeFevour and Tim Hiller respectively. The MAC’s better teams usually cover spreads and the weaker teams fail to do so.

Sun Belt
1) Troy -33
2) Arkansas State -21
3) Florida Atlantic -20
4) UL-Monroe -20
5) Louisiana – Lafayette -17
6) Florida International -16.5
7) Middle Tenn. State -13
8) North Texas -6
9) Western Kentucky -1

Analysis- What separates Troy from the competition is incoming quality players ready to move into starting spots after seeing action the previous year. These replacements help keep the Trojans near the top of the Sun Belt standings under coach Larry Blakeney. From talent standpoint, the standings in the SBC could go many ways in slots 2-7, with these teams fairly balanced. What Western Kentucky brings to the party will be worth watching in their first season of conference play. Road teams have often been the best wager in conference action.