| 1. Look for
horses that finished in the placing, that is first, second or third at their
last four starts in their current campaign.
2. Include any non-placed
run if it was within two lengths of the winner.
3. Last run must be on a
metropolitan track unless it is a city standard horse. This little method
will give you plenty of horses to check out and regularly comes up with some
good winners.
Remember occasionally
taking odds on about a horse is like putting your head in a hot oven.
Regularly taking odds on is like putting your head in a hot
oven and closing the door!
Always check and see what
odds the TAB and bookies are offering and take the one, which will provide
the best return.
Horses that are true odds
on's chances are generally very short in the betting ring, often odds on.
You are very lucky if you can get better than 6/4. Of course there are also
plenty of true 2/1 and 3/1 chances or even worse that are offered at 6/4 in
the betting ring. Bettors generally take the short odds because they feel
comfortable knowing plenty of money has gone on the horse. If they lose,
many other bettors lose along with them. That is also why many media
tipsters like tipping the short priced favorites. They know there is no
value backing most of these horses, but because they accept that their tips
are going to lose overall they want the comfort of being incorrect in the
same way as most other judges.
Here are some simple
tactics which may be helpful to a new bettor:
Before a horse can be considered, it should be determined that he's
physically fit enough to be at or near his best. Athletes become fit via two
avenues, competition and training. Examine the dates of prior last races,
found at the far left of the past performance line. The more recent races he
has, the more certain of his fitness.
If he's been away from the races for two months or more, examine morning
training workouts shown underneath the last past performance line. It is
generally understood that fitness is best derived by a combination of
competition and training. The longer the layoff, the more difficult the
comeback. Make a final determination and if deemed fit, go to the next
variable. If not, eliminate.
Class in Thoroughbred racing can be defined by saying that class is the
quality of competition a horse can compete favorably against. Look at the
prior conditions under which the horse has raced. Regardless of any other
variable, a horse cannot be expected to win without having shown a past
ability to do so against similar competition. If he has not shown the past
ability, he can be considered a throw-out, unless he's rapidly improving and
won his last race with enough authority to move up in class against tougher
competition. If he's fit and can compete against the competition, move to
the next variable.
Through either breeding, conformation, running style, or training
techniques, horses generally do better at certain distances. Few are
versatile enough to handle short and long races effectively. Examine all
races listed to determine if he's done well at the designated distance. If
he's a proven competitor at today's distance, continue to consider him, and
eliminate him if he's had numerous opportunities without success. He may
show a potential to handle the distance, but can't be overly well regarded
without proof. Remember, never expect a horse to do something he's never
done before.
The Post Position Draw, a random drawing done after entries for a race are
taken, can often turn a potential winner into a dead loser, and vice-versa!
Track biases exist at many tracks, favoring inside or outside post
positions. Check post position statistics listed in programs or Lone Star
Today to see if certain posts appear better than others. As a general rule,
far outside posts in bulky fields in sprints (10 or more) can prove more
challenging. The two inside posts in big fields can also be detrimental.
Early speed is preferable for both inside and outside posts because without
it, outside horses lose ground and inside ones get trapped. A horse's
running style and the post position are directly correlated. In longer,
two-turn-races, inside posts are almost always preferred. The shorter the
two-turn race, the more it favors inside. If it can be determined that the
post will not be a detriment, move on. But a horse can be thrown out if it
is determined his chances will be badly compromised by post position.
Horses generally settle into a certain style of running, broken down into
three categories: pace-setter or front runner, horses who run in the lead or
who are never further back than two lengths; stalker, horses who are never
further back from the lead than 4 lengths; and closer or rally types, horses
who are never closer than five lengths from the pace. Horses have been known
to change styles, but the vast majority have consistent styles. True front
runners always try for the lead when possible. Front runners are most
effective when unchallenged early. The easier they are able to get a clear
lead, the better the chances. Prefer front runners when there are few, if
any, potential challengers or if a pronounced track bias favoring early
speed exists. Otherwise, look more favorably upon those that can stalk or
rally.
A stalker rarely makes the lead, and seldom possesses a big late kick. They
have the speed to stay close and pass tiring front runners, and can hold off
the big closers that lag well behind. Stalkers can make the lead if no front
runners are in the race. Prefer stalkers when numerous front runners are
present, and without the presence of a strong and fit rally or closer horse.
Rally or closers are best when an abundance of early speed exists and are
often victimized when a front runner is loose on the lead. Playing rally or
closers is more precarious than horses with speed as they can run into
traffic problems. And, statistics show that horses closer to the lead win
the majority of races. However, under certain circumstances, closers are a
very positive choice.
Give careful consideration to the trainer, who is like the coach. Everyone
knows that some coaches are superior to others and there can be a large
discrepancy be-tween the best and the worst. Trainers have a big job and
must have a wealth of knowledge about a large number of facets of training a
horse to race. They must not only be good horsemen, they must have excellent
organizational skills in order to coordinate the efforts of an entire
stable. Statistics point out the top trainers at the track and a handicapper
that pays attention to the trainers of every horse in every race will soon
have a good working knowledge of which ones are acceptable when making a
final decision. If the trainer meets the handicapper's standards, he can
move on to the next variable. But an elimination can be made if you feel the
competence of the conditioner is in question.
The role of the jockey is
often understated. Checking out statistics at most tracks, a small
percentage of riders win the great majority of the races. It takes a great
deal of skill to ride a horse in a race. To suggest that all riders are
equally proficient is ludicrous. Jockeys must possess good riding
techniques, have strength, intelligence, good judgment and timing and have
an ability to communicate with the horse. Some jockeys are far more
proficient than others, and by perusing the statistics or by simply watching
them day in and day out, one can learn which are the most reliable. When
making a final decision, be sure the horse you select has an acceptable
rider. When eliminating horses in fields with numerous contenders, you may
be able to eliminate a horse because of the rider alone.
When making a final selection it's important to determine that the horse is
in good present form. Examining the finishes of his most recent races tells
you if he's racing well and competitively. Statistics prove that horses that
have recently won or have been reasonably close, win the majority of races.
Most horses have form cycles in that they run well for a period of time,
then tail off. Initially select horses that appear to be in form or rounding
to form, and be wary of ones that have raced well, but show signs of tailing
off. Sometimes horses that have not been close to winning of late are
dropped in class and can still be considered viable choices, but the
handicapper should expect that the horse in question at least showed some
interest against better competition. Be careful not to give too much
consideration to horses that are dropping down after showing no life at all
as they may have lost their will to compete. After all, any horse can be
last in a race. When making a final decision, it's a wise practice to play
horses with good present form and eliminate those that are obviously off
form.
Before considering a horse a top contender, examine his record for the year
and his lifetime record. A handicapper should look for horses that are more
likely to run well than not. If they have finished in the money 50% of the
time, they can be deemed consistent. Many horses with poor consistency
records cannot be heavily relied upon to run well after a good effort the
time before. So, despite a good recent race, they have shown a past tendency
not to repeat strong performances. A horse coming off a good race returning
in a similar situation is hard to disregard. But if he's shown a lack of
past consistency, his lack of reliability would make it difficult to make a
serious wager on him. A handicapper should demand consistency before making
a horse a serious contender.
Some handicappers use the weight carried by a horse as a critical factor.
This is a controversial variable among astute handicappers. A truism is that
weight will stop a freight train. However, determining how a few pounds,
more or less, will affect a horse's performance isn't easy to assess. Race
horses can weigh well over 1,000 pounds. So humans, who generally weigh
about 80% less, would find it hard to understand how 10 pounds affects a
horse in comparison to a much less sturdy and strong human. Proportionately
speaking, one could assume that ten pounds to a human, which is significant,
may feel like only two pounds to a horse. Obviously, two pounds is hardly
enough to slow him down much.
If you decide to use weight as a handicapping variable, it would seem wise
to consider it more important as the length of the race increases. It may
also be prudent not to consider weight a factor unless it involves at least
a difference of five pounds or more. You may also want to use weight if
comparing horses in the same race if there is a significant switch in
weights, like one horse taking off five pounds coming out of a race against
a rival who may be adding five pounds. Generally, weight may play a lesser
role than many have believed and without knowing each horse's capacity to
carry weight, it may be impossible to use effectively. Nonetheless, for
those who have found success using this variable, it may have a place in
making a final decision.
Various speed figures (Beyers, etc.) have been compiled in recent years.
These figures basically assign a number to each race run by a horse. Beyer
numbers, for instance, are based almost exclusively by running times in
conjunction with track conditions. Speed sheets, put out by Ragozin and
others, also use difficulty of trip to determine the figure. Some arbitrary
judgment made by the representative for each track also figures into the
final number.
The number certainly reduces a horse's past performance to just digits and
can be used to quickly identify the contenders. However, as speed figure
producers suggest, the handicapper is implored to use other handicapping
techniques to be used in conjunction with the number.
The numbers, if used, should be used more as a guide. Although at times, a
horse with an apparently large advantage may be a play on the number alone.
But, obviously no guarantee exists. Generally speaking, use speed figures as
one of the many available handicapping tools.
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