Unless I get
the message straight from the horse's mouth or another
part of the anatomy -- aggressive, controllable behavior,
shiny coat or a fluid transition from a walking gait to a
gallop in the post parade -- I rely on handicapping.
However,
I'm not opposed to following sensible advice on making
those selections such as:
1) Avoid
first-time starters on the rail, especially in sprints,
because speed horses breaking outside of them often prove
intimidating.
2) Bullet
workouts are good indicators that a horse is ready to
roll, but pay more attention to fast works within a week
of the next race.
3) Watch
for a thoroughbred entered in a sprint after racing first
or second near the far turn in a route before weakening.
4) Pacesetters with veteran jockeys and the inside post
have the edge on off tracks and finish in the money about
25 percent of the time.
5) Post
positions mean more when a horse shows a preference for
winning from the inside or outside.
6) Look for
thoroughbreds that exhibit improvement by the decreasing
number of beaten lengths and increasing speed figures.
7) Weight
comes into play in routes -- a five-pound advantage is
worth about a length.
8) Horses
encountering traffic problems in large fields should be
tabbed when part of a small field.
9) Consider
betting on a horse with spotty performances and high odds
when a top jockey climbs aboard.
10) Money
management is the primary key to winning. So when you're
hot, increase your bets. And when you're not, decrease
your wagers. That's because some streaks last for days.
11) One way
to insure a losing streak is to bet on short-priced
favorites -- that strategy will l ead you to the poor
house. Obviously, you can't win every race so you must be
selective.
12) I knew
a turf writing handicapper who refused to bet on favorites
that dropped below 5-2. Others I know don't wager on
horses below 2-1.
13) As far
as I'm concerned, that doesn't include exotic bets. It's
all right to include such favorites in exactas, trifectas
and Pick 3s, 4s, 5s, 6s, etc. But I also always include a
longshot unless the favorite appears truly unbeatable.
14) I've
learned from several handicappers that you must be willing
to adjust at any time. You must apply what factors are
important for a particular race.
15)
Discount so-called inside information. Bet your own
horses. Once in a while you might get a tip that has some
validity, but by the time it reaches you, it has passed
through many hands and undoubtedly will be overbet.
So the next
time you get a tip, check out the horse and see if the
thoroughbred passes your handicapping test. And let your
wagering conscience be your guide.
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Handicapping a
horse race is like the search for a good golf swing in two
main ways.
There's a lot to remember.
And, pressure causes forgetfulness.
Over the last couple of weeks, I've heard
from a number of people who could use a basic handicapping foundation —
a redefining of the essential elements for horse players stuck in old
mud, and something like a basic strategy for those relatively new to the
game.
Here's my favorite email on the subject:
Listen, why don't you put together something that summarizes the "new
handicapping" age. But not in a book for $25. Put it right here for
free. Your reward will be in benefiting others.
1. Forget all but one or two of
those how-to books. If a system worked, the writer wouldn't have to
write about it. Hard as writing can be, it's still easier than picking
winners consistently.
2. Don't automatically dismiss
dramatic drops in class.
Time was, a big class drop meant that a
horse was not on solid footing.
But the other night, I saw one drop from
$15,000 to half that and win like one fast mummy, all taped up, who
knows for sure if the wraps were even needed.
Purses spun up by slot machine profits
are now are now oftentimes worth the drop-down gamble.
3. Avoid extreme works — too fast
too slow, that's another way of saying the trainer lost it.
4. Don't let a long layoff be the
only reason to keep you from making a play.
Not all works are official.
5. Odds-on big-time first-timers
are great bets on pick 3's, 4's and 6's.
6. Play hot barns.
Not to cast too many aspersions, but
winning can be habit forming.
7. If an obvious horse with
mid-level odds doesn't get bet, leave it alone.
If they don't like it, why should you?
8. Late runners are for suckers.
They're usually shorter than should be
the case because of the drama of the swoop that just misses.
9. Good female jockeys are almost
always underplayed at the windows by yahoos.
10. It matters where a trouble
line occurred.
Late, toward the front, yeah; fifth
around the first turn, not so much.
Also, there's a whole lot of flopping
going on beaten jockeys oftentimes resemble beaten soccer players.
11. Horses that lug in are usually
fine.
Lug in, dig in — similar.
12. Horses that drift are tired.
13. Horses with speed are the best
possibility for big long shot wins.
Uncontested speed at any distance and on
any surface can represent a gift horse.
14. Cheap claiming favorites make
little sense.
15. Many state-bred stakes races
are about like $5,000 open claiming races.
16. A handicapper's mood is
critical.
Bad moods lose.
17. Technical stats matter.
Bad trainers and jockeys seldom improve
over the meet, forget overnight.
18. Small tracks rock and rule.
Purses spiked by slot machines attract
better material than the larger fading money pits.
19. Wins against short fields are
for the railbirds.
Subtract five Beyer points for each win
against fewer than ten.
20. "Lost jockey" is not so bad.
Except for the jockey.
If the jockey is decent and gets back on,
so should you.
21. Never bet horses moving from
the lint, or fake dirt, to the real thing.
It's your money. Soon it could be
somebody else's. A person needs a rule or two.
22. Focus on exotics, play them
first — rolling doubles, pick 3's, 4's, etc., because that's all about
looking for winners.
Steven Crist wrote a good book about why
exotics make the most sense and money.
23. Think twice about L1 after a
good race, first-time lasix after something like a win.
My granddaddy wondered how much better
can a young one get, anyway?
24. Handicap late.
What's the rush? Biases are so important,
handicapping the night before can seem like old news.
25. Don't let odds chase you off a
horse, save for the exception mentioned before — the horse that figures
to be bet a little, but isn't.
Take a good look around at just who sets
the odds: Goofballs
26. Heed expert selections.
What more could you ask than a guaranteed
loser, or more, per big race?
Pressure puts the expert picker in a
pickle: He or she would rather have company losing on the obvious than
by trying a long shot and slumping alone.
Certain expert picker angles, like
searching for "value," are like found money.
Searching for "value" is like not fouling
at basketball when you're up by three with a few seconds left.
Did you know that nobody can recall a
single basketball team that was up by three going to the last shot, and
fouled, and lost? Once? Ever? If it has never ever once happened, why
don't all coaches up three going to the last shot foul? Simple, they're
scared dumb.
Similarly, nobody in expert horse race
picking history can ever recall a "value" pick winning a race.
Guess what, all winners have value.
27. Learn how to pass on a race.
If a race doesn't make decent sense,
watch it.
I can't recall passing on many races I
would have won with a bet.
28. Breeding is important.
Get a book.
29. Don't drink and bet unless
you're made of money and are walking.
30. An "off" track means
everything.
Results from mud to dry, or dry to mud,
are seldom similar.
31. Lay off the windows after a
big win.
It isn't roulette. It's skill, remember?
32. Never bet more than you can
afford to win.
Not betting enough causes bad beats.
If you don't have enough money to
adequately cover what you like, stay home.
33. Don't make a big win bet to
try to get even.
It's a loser's curse.
34. Ask somebody else about grass
races.
About the only turf races I win are loose
on the lead, or bad last to first, sorry, I know next to nothing of the
difficult subject.
35. Post position bias is a little
overrated.
Once you've hit a nice 11-12 exacta box
at Lone Star, it's fairly obvious that speed and style are the most
important gate elements.
36. Buy a Racing Form.
Trying to handicap from a program is like
studying for finals with only Cliffs Notes.
37. Always bet pet names.
What's two bucks.
38. Think fast about post parades.
On simulcast TV windows, you're lucky if
you get the opportunity to see all the legs.
Obviously, heated or flat behavior in the
post parade can be cause for concern.
A halfway decent trainer told me that if
a horse was shaking his head side to side with meaning, not up and down,
side to side, it could be another way of saying: Forget it, no way I'm
running today.
39. Be aware of front wraps.
Sure, it could be something innocent.
I know a man who, in inexpensive claiming
races, boxes horses without front wraps; and makes money doing it.
40. Think about not taking a loved
one to the races on a regular basis. It can be like fishing in a tiny
boat with a spouse, or golfing in the same cart.
Horse racing is fun after it's work. You
want to take a loved one to work, that's just you.