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17. How to Win at Sports Betting, Parts 1, 2, & 3
How to win at sports betting
Part 1: By Derek
Today I begin a series on how to win money at
sports betting, and although I don't expect or claim that what I detail will
be an exhaustive series of articles, one thing in their favor is that each
of the principles and method's examined have been tested and refined over
several years.
Rest assured that nothing here is an intellectual
exercise, but was discovered, sometimes painfully, by betting over a period
of time using real money and standing or falling by the results. Many of you
are experienced bettors and will already understand most of the principles
involved, but I believe there is much to gain by having a further look at
them with a little self examination.
I resemble this to driving a car. To pass a driving
test we do everything by the instruction book, and after passing the test we
add further knowledge and experience of real life driving conditions to make
us better drivers. Be honest with yourself, we also pick up bad habits that
become part of our technique almost un-knowingly. Our betting techniques are
also subject to the gradual intrusion of bad habits and practices. In the
absence of losing our bankroll we tend to ignore them, lessening our overall
effectiveness as bettors.
Know the Enemy. For anyone new to sports betting to
even consider starting without first knowing how a bookmaker operates is
suicidal. To get involved without first knowing the rules is simply crazy as
all eventualities should be weighed up as part of the process of determining
the likely success of any wager.
Know Myself It is essential to know your strong and
weak points, and brutal honesty is what's required here if you wish to
succeed at sports betting. The kind of tongue in cheek statement that
follows the accusation, "you're drunk" with "I only had a couple", when it's
clear you're arse faced, is of no use to us in our quest to win. Most of us
think we are better than we actually are in any field of endeavor, and
sports betting is no different. The big difference is that telling a little
lie about the size of your penis won't empty your bankroll in the same way
that misleading ourselves about our tipping skills will. The only certain
way to get an un-biased and truthful picture of the facts is to keep
detailed records. Not just the winners, but the losers too. Complete,
extensive and accurate records is a must for anyone with ambitions to
succeed at beating the bookmaker. Do not trust to memory, it's fallible.
If you are new to this sphere, then the safest way
to begin is what is known as "paper trading". This simply means that
selections are made, a stake is chosen, but no (real) money is used. Phony
money, fake dollars, monopoly cash, call it what you like. The point is how
can you establish a pattern of strengths and weaknesses without first
testing the water ? Why risk hard earned money while you're finding out the
big picture ? I know the thought will spring to mind during this testing
period if you're showing a profit, "if only I'd used real money....", but
that is not the point. There will always be plenty of opportunities to
profit for real once the basics are taken care of.
The number of sports being punted is also worth
careful consideration. I know of no successful sports bettor who can devote
enough time and energy in the study of their profession to cover more than 2
or 3 sports with any long term success when they first start out. It is
simply not possible to cover all the information angles necessary a maintain
a winning career if any more sports are tackled simultaneously. I started
with two sports and increased to three after a year and now I have my data
bases and manage my time more effectively, I have managed to start
researching and betting a further three sports.
In Part Two next week I will detail exactly how I
keep my records, and separate the records from the accurate facts and
statistics that will actually be of benefit. Make sure you check back, you
have nothing to lose and plenty to gain.
How to win at sports betting
Part 2: By Derek
Accurate record keeping and a diligent money
management policy are equally if not more important than the ability to
pick winners for anyone with ambitions to make consistent profits in the
sports betting arena. I have posted several articles on various staking
methods and money management and one should copy these and file away for
constant viewing.
Most people with a general interest in sport have
the ability to pick a winning team in any contest, but the belief that this
alone is enough to secure a steady flow of profits is a certain recipe for
disaster. Without an overall plan and accurate records of all bets placed it
is impossible to rise above the level of intuition and lucky guessing over
an extended period.
Make no mistake about it, there are countless
punters all over the world who fail regularly to make a decent income from
betting simply because they rely totally on their ability to pick winners
without regard for money management and a cohesive strategy that covers the
"bigger picture."
I know of many gamblers who have ended
their days with little to show for a lifetime's work despite having
reasonable ability in researching and weighing-up the factors involved in
determining a winning bet because they didn't formulate a long-term plan and
strategy.
Am I making myself clear? Have I got your
attention? Let me say it again. To have any real prospect of making
long-term profits from the field of sports betting - accurate records,
money management, and a dedicated approach to research and
fact-finding are crucial and compulsory, or a lifetime of disappointment is
guaranteed.
So where do we start? That's easy, first of all we
need a few items to help us along. Get yourself a pen and a notebook, some
refreshments (tea, coffee, fizzy carbonated drinks and chocolate are good,
alcohol is not) and get comfortable.
Today I am going to establish the principles that
will last a lifetime, and go a long way towards turning enthusiastic amateur
punters into full time professional sports investors.
Let's be clear that there is no magic formula or
secret ingredient that will turn a pin sticker into a bookie-plunderer
overnight, and there are simply no shortcuts that I know of. Hard work and
persistence are the main qualities needed here, and if you aren't willing to
invest some time and effort then it's time to stop reading.
If on the other hand you have a desire to move up a
level from a hobby bettor, then get ready for many hours studying your new
profession, and be ready to reap the rewards.
Starting today, not tomorrow, but today, establish
a bankroll. How much are you prepared to lose? How much can
you afford to invest in yourself? Set a figure that you can live comfortably
with and be prepared to lose every single penny of it. Hang on, isn't this
supposed to be about winning money? I hear many of you shouting at the page.
Yes of course it is, but let's use the initial bankroll and set ourselves
the "worst case scenario" where it all ends up in the bookies wallet if we
fail.
It won't happen if the principles I outline are
followed, but let's assume it all goes horribly wrong and if the bankroll is
an amount we can afford to lose, then nothing will be lost except a little
money. Our lives won't be dramatically altered by a miss-guided attempt to
enter an arena for which we have no aptitude.
Starting today you will make a note of every single
bet you make. I don't need to do this with you as I already do and have
every bet I have made be it £1 or £1000, it is all logged. Date, selection,
price, stake, percentage of stake in relation to bankroll, returns,
profit/loss and finally accumulated balance. No exceptions, no misses, no
excuses.
Every single penny of the bankroll must now be
accounted for every step of the way with no room for the "I'll do it later"
attitude. Quite simply, without this record keeping there is absolutely no
possible way of getting an accurate picture of a betting campaign, and if
it's left to memory we cannot hope to progress beyond the level of amateur
punting.
The next rule to ingrain on our thought process is
how much to bet with on each bet, and the rule here is simple. Never bet
more than 5% of the bankroll on any given game. Less would be better 2 - 3%,
but 5% is high enough and should be only betted when as much is in your
favour as could possibly be. This means that if the bankroll is £1000, on no
occasion should any more than £50 be at risk on any one game.
It doesn't matter if a "sure thing" is offered
(there will always be sure things), no more than 5% is a rule that I adhere
to except under the most exceptional circumstances. These exceptional
circumstances have presented themselves to me on three occasions the last
calendar year and I was fortunate enough to win on all three.
The reasons are easily explained. By never risking
more than this percentage you are assured that a bad run of losing bets will
not wipe out your entire bank, and all the while you'll be building up an
exhaustive record of bets placed that will help you to pinpoint your
strengths and weaknesses in the tipping area of your strategy.
I cannot emphasise strongly enough how vital this
first-level money management principle is to long term success. Without the
discipline required to stick to the strategy you might as well give up and
go back to whatever methods you used before.
In summary here's what I've outlined today.
Establish an initial bankroll
Keep accurate records of all bets
Never risk more than 5% (less is better) of the
bank on any one game.
How to Win at Sports Gambling
Part 3: By Derek
Okay then, you've stocked up on notebooks, pencils
or a computer spreadsheet, and the refreshment cabinet is full to the brim.
What do we do now? Review the 3 rules below and then let's move on.
1/ Establish an initial bankroll 2/ Keep accurate
records of all bets 3/ Never risk more than 5% (less is better) of the bank
at any one time.
The next step may seem like an obvious one, but it
trips up so many people there should be a Government health warning along
these lines on every bookies coupon.
WARNING: Betting on sports where
you have no in-depth knowledge can seriously affect your wealth.
Q1: How obvious is that? Q2: How valid is the
point? Q3: How many of you will ignore it?
A1: Very A2: Very
A3: Plenty:
I know from experience that many punters,
once the decision to have a bet is taken, will bet on almost anything just
to satisfy their need and craving for the excitement that goes along with
the process. The adrenalin rush associated with gambling is a potent and
powerful force that occasionally cannot be denied, and unless it can be
tamed, there is nothing but a headlong rush into long-term losses in
prospect for the unfortunate sufferer.
I am not suggesting that the excitement and
enjoyment be taken out of the equation altogether, only directed into an
area where at least the punter has a better chance of ending the day with
some profits in the bank.
Punting on any sport without in-depth knowledge
reduces the chances of winning to pure luck and relying on the opinions of
others to make the decisions on our behalf. This doesn't mean that proven
sports tipsters should not be acknowledged and followed, but that blindly
going with the flow of someone else's opinion without some further capping
by yourself to substantiate the play reduces the winning profit over an
extended period of time.
To be successful we simply must build our own
opinions, and those can only be made by using our own records and methods
for selecting likely winners to bet on.
The first thing to do then is be honest with
yourselves and choose one or two sports in which you have some sound
knowledge. These are the sports in which you will attempt to make your
betting pay dividends. There is simply no point in punting on events of
which you know little about.
Whatever sport you choose, you must now learn
everything that can possibly help you in your quest. The websites with the
latest news and information should be bookmarked and visited regularly in
fact make that daily.
The newspapers and magazines with current
information should be read regularly, and the opinions of others involved in
the betting arena should be noted (although not blindly followed) and all
the while you should be formulating your own opinions.
When you have decided on a bet, and carefully noted
your stake and all other details into your records, you should also add a
few words as to why you selected the bet. These can be read at a later date
and patterns will be seen in your overall strategy.
Does this seem like a lot of work? Perhaps even
verging on the bounds of over-kill? The answer to that question will
determine just how serious you are about making a living from sports
betting.
I will go a step further and suggest that without
this type of preparation there is absolutely no chance of long term profit
taking. That's a pretty strong statement, but one which I believe to be true
and all those with an ambition to rise above the herd would be well advised
to take note of it.
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