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Countdown to the Crown

Editor's Note: Countdown to the Crown returns for a fifth season online as one of the most comprehensive handicapping analyses of the 3-year-old scene. Posted each Friday from Jan. 8 through the Belmont Stakes, Countdown keeps you apprised of the rising stars in the 3-year-old class from the maiden ranks through the Grade 1 stakes.

3 things you won't read anywhere else

Opinions on handicapping the horses are like ordering off a Chinese takeout menu. Unless you really know what you're talking about, it's best not to say too much and just fire off a number.

1. Saturday might be a good time to kick off a two-prep campaign for the Derby. Last year Mine That Bird made his first start of the year Feb. 28, while the year previous Big Brown kicked things off March 5. Street Sense opened his two-prep slate in 2007 on March 17. Average them together and what do you get for the last three Derby winners? A March 6 return, which just happens to be the date this Saturday.

2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Bob Baffert) had his best morning in a more than a month Monday when he drilled 7 furlongs in a racehorse time of 1:25.20 at Santa Anita. Still, Countdown's No. 1 and the reigning juvenile champion will be hard-pressed to find a good spot to return as the San Felipe and Rebel both look like awfully salty spots on the immediate horizon. I would have MUCH preferred to see him ready to run in this weekend's MUCH easier Sham, 9 furlongs or not.

3. If you don't think D. Wayne Lukas is serious about DUBLIN, perhaps you missed Sunday's workout tab at Oaklawn. The Southwest Stakes runner-up wasted no time getting back to work, drilling a bullet half-mile in :48.40, just eight days after his 2010 return rally -- wow! The jury still deliberates whether DUBLIN can be a true, classics-distance kind of runner, but there's no doubt Lukas thinks he has a special racehorse on his hands.

more on this story...

ALSO SEE...


Zardana spoils Rachel's comeback
NEW ORLEANS -- Rachel Alexandra was Horse of the Year in 2009, but before a packed house Saturday at Fair Grounds, all eyes trained on her 2010 debut, Rachel was not the horse of the day, going down to a three-quarters of a length defeat at the hooves of Zardana in the inaugural running of the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies.

The defeat put in some doubt Rachel Alexandra's participation in the April 9 Apple Blossom Invitational at Oaklawn Park, trainer Steve Asmussen said shortly after the Ladies.

"If I thought she'd get beat I wouldn't have run her today," Asmussen said. "We'll have to be cautious. We want to do what's right for the mare."

Rachel Alexandra had been on accelerated schedule all winter in an effort to make the Ladies and use this race as a springboard to the Apple Blossom and a potential race against champion Zenyatta, who won her comeback Saturday at Santa Anita in the Santa Margarita. She had made all her scheduled works, packed just six days apart since early February, but her major breeze for Saturday's race, on March 13, did not go as planned, producing a slower time than Asmussen wanted. And in the end, it would appear, Rachel Alexandra came up short Saturday.

Asmussen and Borel walked tightly together all the way from the winner's circle to the jockeys' room, which Borel entered without speaking to the media.

Later, he told Fair Grounds publicity officials that Rachel had gotten tired.

"She needed the race, that's all," said Borel. "She needed the race more than anything."

That assessment was echoed by Asmussen, who blamed himself for Rachel Alexandra's defeat.

"The filly's lacking fitness," he said. "It was my job to have her there, and I didn't do it."

Zardana, making her first start on dirt since being imported from South America, and winning for the first time on a dry dirt track, ran well in victory. Breaking outward and into Unforgotten, Zardana was taken in hand by David Flores, settling in third as Fighter Win, urged to the lead, set splits of 23.84 seconds for the first quarter, and 47.72 to the half. The half-mile split was especially fast, since the second quarter of the 1 1/16-mile Ladies was run into the teeth of a strong wind, and Rachel was no more than a length away from the leader there. Earlier on the card, a high-level allowance race at the same distance produced a half-mile split of 49.15 seconds.

Rachel Alexandra, who handled herself well while being saddled in front of a noisy crowd, broke alertly and tracked Fighter Wing's pace all the way to the second turn. There, Borel gave a glance back, and let Rachel Alexandra roll to the lead.

Borel said he rode to instructions, and would have preferred to have let Rachel take the lead earlier.

"I wanted to go on past the speed horse early," Borel said. "I'd have got by her anytime and my filly could have gone on, but they wanted me to wait and not get into her until the sixteenth pole."

When Borel made his initial move, Flores let Zardana out a notch, too, and past the three-eighths pole, midway around the far turn, Zardana attacked aggressively to Rachel's outside. She drew even with Rachel Alexandra as the two horses straightened away, but Rachel Alexandra, cornering slightly better than her opponent, regained the advantage.

"I thought she was going to pull away from me," Flores said.

Instead, Zardana quickly came back on even terms with Rachel Alexandra, pushing past her inside the final furlong, and gradually edging clear.

"She's a very strong filly, as small as she is," said Flores.

Zardana, owned by Arnold Zetcher and trained by John Shirreffs, stopped the timer in 1:43.55, and paid $21 to win. Unforgotten finished third, more than 11 lengths behind Rachel Alexandra, with Fighter Wing fourth, and Clear Sailing a distant last of five.

Rachel Alexandra is far from the first Horse of the Year to lose the first start of the next season. And Borel said she went down fighting Saturday.

"You know how I know she's a real racehorse? She was beat when that other horse went by her, but she didn't quit," he said. "She dug in and fought right back and stayed with the winner the rest of the way. That's the kind of racehorse she is."


Punishment should fit Paragallo's crime

Ernie Paragallo has been convicted on 33 charges of animal cruelty and now it is up to Judge George J. Pulver Jr. to give him as harsh a sentence as possible. What Paragallo did is despicable and the judge shouldn't show one ounce of leniency. That means giving him two years in prison, fining him $33,000 and forcing him to pay restitution to the various agencies that came in and rescued the emaciated, starving horses on his farm in Climax, N.Y.

Good for Pulver thus far for not falling for Paragallo's lame excuses and attempts to put the blame on his employees at the farm or his idiotic assertion that he was merely following the feeding guidelines set forth in "Joe Taylor's Complete Guide to Breeding and Raising Racehorses." Good for Greene County District Attorney Terry Wilhelm for arguing an effective case and getting the conviction. Kudos to the Columbia-Greene Humane Society for all the work it did in helping to nail Paragallo and finding homes for his horses.

Paragallo's attorney has said he will file an appeal, but it doesn't really matter. He has no case and will not win.

Sentencing has been set for May 18. Pulver doesn't have to give Paragallo, who remains free on bond, the maximum sentence. This wouldn't be the first time that a judge gave someone a sentence much less than the maximum, maybe even one that doesn't include jail time. That shouldn't happen here, and it probably won't.

The story began in April when investigators raided Paragallo's upstate New York farm and seized 177 malnourished, parasite-infested horses. Many of the ailing horses were adopted out, but several were in such bad shape that they had to be euthanized. Paragallo is a prominent owner and breeder who raced 1996 Kentucky Derby favorite Unbridled's Song and whose horses have earned $20.6 million on the racetrack.

"My gut reaction is that when someone is found guilty on 33 of 34 counts, they will get the maximum penalty," said Diana Pikulski, who heads the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation and is also a lawyer. "That just shows the scope of his behavior."

Ron Perez, the president of the Columbia-Greene Humane Society, agrees.

"Yes, I think he will do some jail time," he said. "The magnitude of this particular cruelty is going to pave the way for a sentence that is near the max. Whether he'll actually get two years, I don't know about that. But I do think he'll get the lion's share of the jail sentence."

Perez also wants Judge Pulver to order Paragallo to pay his organization the estimated $60,000 it had to spend on care for the ailing horses. That should be a no-brainer.

"That's a lot of money and we need it," Perez said. "We're a tiny little place."

Considering what Paragallo did, two years and a $33,000 fine doesn't seem like enough. The problem is that under New York law, Paragallo's crimes qualified only as misdemeanors and not felonies. In some instances, New York's animal cruelty laws are quite harsh, but the stiffest ones do not cover horses, only animals classified as companion animals. Had Paragallo starved 33 dogs, he very well could have been hit with felony charges.

Since the Paragallo case broke, Perez has been meeting with politicians in Albany in an effort to get the laws changed so that anyone seriously mistreating horses can be charged with a felony.

"This should have been a felony," he said. "I have met with Senator (Eric) Adams (the chairperson of the state's racing, gaming and wagering committee) from the New York State Senate twice now and the impetus behind my meeting was to say that if there are 10 or more animals that are being mistreated and not being provided with proper sustenance then it should go up to a felony. There seems to be a lot of consensus that that should apply. To do so, horses have to be moved into a category as a companion animal."

Whatever happens, Paragallo won't be behind bars long. Don't be the least bit surprised if he wants back into racing. Don't think it can't happen. The sport is notorious for allowing its worst miscreants to find their way back into the business. Paragallo must never race or own a horse again. The same goes for anyone in his immediate family. He already made New York racing regulators look like chumps when they allowed him to get away with putting his horses in his daughters' names after he got in trouble for not paying his debts.

This is a bad guy who did a very bad thing. He needs to go to jail for two years and never step foot on a racetrack again. Go get him, Judge Pulver.


Handicapping Tools and Resources
  • E-ponies: Daily Handicapping
  • Horseplayer Pro: Friday-Saturday-Sunday analysis of major races on ESPN.com
  • Equibase Handicapper's Store
  • NTRA: Free past performances from featured televised races on ESPN and ABC
  • NTRA: Pocket Wagering Guide (PDF)
  • NTRA: New to horse racing?
  • NTRA Wagering Moments with Randy Moss

  • Lookin At Lucky digs in to win Rebel
    HOT SPRINGS, Ark. -- Lookin At Lucky overcame being checked down the backside to edge Noble's Promise by a head and win his first start of the year in the Grade 2, $300,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday.

    Dublin finished three lengths back in third in the 1 1/16-mile race that served as the final local prep for the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby on April 10.

    Lookin At Lucky ($4.20) settled in fifth early in the Rebel, racing along the inside after breaking from post 2. He moved out down the backside and heading into the final turn was forced to check. Lookin At Lucky picked up steam again, began to pass horses, and was diligent through the stretch to cover the distance on a fast track in 1:43.

    Garrett Gomez rode Lookin at Lucky for trainer Bob Baffert. It was the horse's first start since he closed out his championship season with a win in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity at Hollywood Park on Dec. 19. The race was also the first on conventional dirt and the first in blinkers for Lookin at Lucky.

    He races for the partnership of Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman.

    Honeybee: No Such Word takes stakes debut

    No Such Word established herself as a 3-year-old filly to watch on Saturday, when she won her stakes debut in the Grade 3, $125,000 Honeybee. She stalked the pace, moved out in the stretch, and rolled to a 2 1/2-length win over favorite Beautician.

    The Honeybee was the local prep for the Grade 2, $300,000 Fantasy, and the April 2 race will be the next goal for No Such Word, said her trainer, Cindy Jones.

    No Such Word ($15) settled in fifth along the inside early in the Honeybee, as Decelerator led the field through fractions of 22.67 seconds for the opening quarter-mile, 47.06 for the half-mile mark, and 1:12.28 for six furlongs. No Such Word moved off the rail heading into the final turn and closed well through the lane to cover the 1 1/16 miles on a track rated fast in 1:43.74.

    Terry Thompson was aboard the winner, who was the third straight Honeybee champ from the Jones operation. Jones's husband, retired trainer Larry Jones, won the race in 2008 with Eight Belles and in 2009 with Just Jenda.

    No Such Word had won an Oaklawn allowance in her two-turn debut, one start before the Honeybee. Tap Tap Tapping, who was second in the allowance, came back and ran third in the Honeybee, 4 1/4 lengths behind Beautician.

    * A crowd of 36,298 showed up at Oaklawn for the Rebel card.


    More Horse Racing Headlines


    Hollywood cuts stakes purses
    Hollywood Park has made severe cuts to its stakes schedule for the upcoming spring-summer meeting from April 21 to July 18, including reducing the purses of five Grade 1 races.

    The richest race of the meeting will be the Grade 1, $500,000 Hollywood Gold Cup on July 10, a race worth $750,000 last year. The other six Grade 1 races will be worth $250,000. The Gamely Stakes on May 29 and Shoemaker Mile on May 31 are unchanged in value. The American Oaks was cut from $700,000, while the Charles Whittingham Handicap, Triple Bend Handicap, and Vanity Handicap have been cut from $300,000.

    The track is offering 45 stakes worth $5.8 million, down from 49 races worth $8 million in 2009. The reductions were made to stabilize overnight purses, according to Hollywood Park vice president of racing Martin Panza.

    "We've got to put as much money in overnight purses as possible to aid horsemen in these tough economic times," he said in a statement.

    Six stakes run in 2009 will not be offered this year - the Ack Ack Handicap, Gallant Man Stakes, Cinema Handicap, Flawlessly Stakes, Khaled Stakes, and Round Table Handicap.

    Two races have been restored - the Will Rogers Handicap for 3-year-olds on turf and the Grade 3 Jim Murray Handicap over 1 1/2 miles on turf. The Will Rogers serves as a replacement for the Cinema, which was run for 3-year-olds over 1 1/8 miles on turf. Until 2008, both races were offered on the stakes schedule.

    The $150,000 Jim Murray Handicap was not run in 2009.

    The Gold Rush program for California-breds on April 24 is led by the $200,000 Snow Chief Stakes for 3-year-olds, which was worth $250,000 last year. The program will feature nine stakes this year, down from 10 last year.


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