Almost No Magic Left for Orlando
Shortly after going down 3-1
in the second round, Orlando's point guard Jameer Nelson said the Magic
would go on the road and beat Detroit to extend the series. "What am I
supposed to do? Guarantee a loss?" Nelson asked Monday. "We've got to
win the game. We have the confidence that we can do it. -"I believe it."
The Pistons have heard their fair share of guarantees over the years,
usually from teammate Rasheed Wallace, and they responded to Nelson's
with a collective yawn. "He doesn't have anything to lose by saying
that," Tayshaun Prince said. "One thing he's probably trying to do is
spark his club."
In today’s world where
accountability has almost nothing to do with the spoken word, Nelson
and those like him can say whatever they want, who is keeping score?
Furthermore, the way Detroit played in Game four at Orlando without
Chauncey Billups (Was that a Members Only sports jacket?), having won
eight of last nine (5-3-1 ATS) at the Palace of Auburn Hills versus
the Magic, much like Jim Carrey as Lloyd Christmas in “Dumb and
Dumber” , at least Nelson and the Magic still have a chance.
Detroit might be without Chauncey Billups when it hosts Game 5 of the
Eastern Conference semifinal. Billups' Bentley was in the parking lot
well before the team's midmorning practice to get treatment on his
strained hamstring and go through a workout with strength and
conditioning coach Arnie Kander. "If you look at it from three or four
days ago to today, it's night and day," Kander said. "Running good.
Feeling good.
"He's had no setbacks and he comes in every morning feeling better."
If Billups sits out for a second game in a row, coach Flip Saunders
insisted it will have nothing to do with having a cushion in the
series. "When he's ready to go, he's going to play," Saunders said.
"If we were down, it wouldn't matter."
Detroit has been pretty tough to beat when it has a chance to advance.
The Pistons are 14-3 following a third victory in a series since 2003,
with nearly as impressive 11-4-2 ATS record, when they started a
streak of advancing to at least the Eastern Conference finals. As
defending champions, they lost to San Antonio in Game 7 of the 2005
NBA finals and dropped two games after going ahead 3-1 in the second
round last year against the Chicago Bulls.
If Detroit avoids a collapse against the Magic, it will be the first
franchise to play in six straight conference championships since the
Los Angeles Lakers did it from 1984-89. During that time, the Lakers
won three titles. The Pistons are shooting for their second during
their current stretch. Detroit is 13-3 ATS as a home favorite in last
16 contests.
The Pistons plan to take care of business so that they can avoid a
trip to Orlando for Game 6 and possibly a series-deciding game at
home, giving Billups time to heal as the Boston-Cleveland series
unfolds. "We don't want to go back (to Orlando)," Richard Hamilton
said. "We want to treat this game like it's our Game 7 and hopefully
come out and get a win."
The Pistons have been beating Orlando in part because Dwight Howard's
production has dipped to solid from spectacular. Howard is averaging
15.5 points on 51 percent shooting, 12.5 rebounds and three blocks
against Detroit. He scored 22.6 points on 64 percent shooting, grabbed
18.2 rebounds and blocked nearly four shots a game in the first round.
Against the Toronto Raptors, Howard became the first player since Wilt
Chamberlain to have a trio of 20-point, 20-rebound games in a series.
Howard scored just eight points in Detroit's 90-89 comeback win at
Orlando on Saturday. That output matched the career playoff low he set
when the Pistons swept the Magic in the first round last season.
Before the series started, Howard talked about how Detroit's Wallace
has shared encouraging thoughts in previous matchups. "He sees
something in me as a player," Howard said. "So, he's always trying to
give me words of wisdom and advice.” Wallace wasn't afraid of his tips
being used against him. "You ever had an intern? Get an intern and
you'll see what it is," Wallace said before Game 1. "You teach an
intern some things, but you won't teach an intern everything."
Howard has remained upbeat about his game and the Magic's chances of
coming back against Detroit despite his struggles, adding everyone
should be saying what Nelson said. "It's not going to happen unless we
believe it," Howard said. "Our mind-set is to go up there and come
back with a win."
Detroit has not always been great in this series defending the Magic’s
three point shots; by and large they have done a good job when needed.
The Pistons are up to 34-13 ATS versus teams who make six or more
3-point shots game on the season and 13-3 ATS at home in the second
part of the year.
Detroit is a 6.5-point favorite at Bookmaker.com with Total 185.5. The
Pistons have been spread winners five straight times when the
oddsmakers choice in the 5-10 point range. Having frequently run into
Billups and Hamilton in the postseason, Orlando is 3-8 ATS as playoff
underdogs.
The referee will toss up the ball a bit after 7 Eastern, with these
two teams having played 10 of 12 OVER in the Motor City.
Prediction
– Detroit by 3
