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Wednesday, March 10, 2010


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NCAA Basketball Trend Report
S FLORIDA (19 - 11) vs. GEORGETOWN (20 - 9) - 3/10/2010, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S FLORIDA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
S FLORIDA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
GEORGETOWN is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGETOWN is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
S FLORIDA is 2-1 against the spread versus GEORGETOWN over the last 3 seasons
GEORGETOWN is 2-1 straight up against S FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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One of the most anticipated televised programs for college basketball fans is this Sunday’s Selection Show on CBS. This is where the entire field of 65 teams is announced and college basketball teams anxiously await to find who, where and if they are part of the illustrious field. In most years, the top seeds are in question, pending the outcomes of conference tournaments. Most of the time a couple of the top teams are considered safe during Championship Week, however anywhere from four to eight teams come down the stretch with at least an outside chance to snag a coveted No.1 seed.

Until this year.

All season we have listened to the offerings of ESPN’s Jay Bilas telling us there are no great teams, which is partially correct, but sometimes true greatness isn’t measured until we’ve had time to reflect.

For the last couple of weeks, we have also been told that this year’s NCAA tournament could be “one of the wackiest ever” (from Dick Vitale) and as many as eight to 12 teams are capable of putting together a six game winning streak and be crowned champions.

Unless a catastrophic injury occurs, like what happened to Purdue, the four number one seeds are already locked. Kansas,
Kentucky, Syracuse and Duke will be at the top of each of the four regions, thus saving you from having to watch the first five minutes of the Selection Show should you so choose.

You can put in the book, even if all your teams were to lose their first game of the conference tournament, they would all still emerge as No.1’s.
What makes me so sure, all you have to do is look up the odds to win the national championship at Sportsbook.com. This is how it currently reads.

Kansas +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Kentucky +300
Syracuse +300
Duke +700

They are the top four teams in every legitimate ranking service and the next group down is for the near-sighted.

Until last week, Kansas State still had a argument, sort of an under the radar choice, but losing to the Jayhawks in Lawrence and carrying that baggage around to falter against Iowa State at home a few days later, takes them out of contention.

Purdue had a very legit chance to crack this cluster, however the unfortunate loss of Robbie Hummel still leaves the Boilermakers high in the polls, but not to those placing futures wagers. Purdue is down to +3500 to be crowned champions, placing them below Wisconsin (+2500), but above Tennessee (+5000).

 I asked COO Ken White of Las Vegas Sports Consultants what he would speculate Purdue would have been with healthy Hummel and he said “Purdue opened (the season) at 12-1 and if Hummel had not been injured, the Boilermakers would likely have been 7 to 1 or 8 to 1”.

West Virginia and Ohio State are among the favorites to win the Big East and Big Ten conference tournaments, however even if they did come away as titlist’s, the Mountaineers have six losses and until knocking off Villanova last week, there most impressive road was against Seton Hall (?). The Buckeyes have suffered seven defeats and the loss at North Carolina back in November doesn’t help the resume now and they were also beaten by West Virginia. Both teams are +1200 to win it all.

A case could be made for New Mexico, if they were 31-0 instead of 28-3. Much like a non-BCS conferences in football, the Lobos spectacular surprise season is outstanding, just not good enough to be top seed unless they were unscathed. Interestingly, New Mexico is +4500 to be national champions.

In the end, if there are truly no great teams, than what is the rest of the field? Is this the year a Villanova (’85) or N.C. State (’74) from yesteryear comes out of nowhere to pull a Buster Douglas and shock the world? We are about to find out, backed with the knowledge whom the top four seeds already are.

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